Latest Economy Observer from Dun & Bradstreet highlights: India Navigating Unprecedented Global Policy Uncertainty with Economic Resilience

PRNewswire
Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], November 11: Dun & Bradstreet, a global leader in business decisioning data and analytics, has released its Economy Observer report for November 2025. Economy Observer is a monthly report sharing in-depth analysis of key macroeconomic developments in India and provides estimates for key economic indicators, and insight into the expected direction of the Indian economy.
Key economic forecast:
Real Economy: The global economy in late 2025 shows signs of slowing growth and fragmented trade dynamics with advanced economies facing fiscal fragility and geopolitical tensions that are reshaping investment flows and supply chains. Yet, amid this turbulence, the Indian economy has emerged as a beacon of resilience buoyed by a supportive policy environment and strong domestic fundamentals. India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood robust at 4.0% in September 2025 underpinned by strong performance in infrastructure-linked sectors such as electricity, construction, and intermediate goods, indicating healthy underlying growth momentum. Dun & Bradstreet estimates IIP growth to have eased to 3.5% in October 2025, driven by sustained weakness in non-durable consumer output, an inventory overhang that could prompt production adjustments and subdued external demand. That said, strategic trade diversification, strong domestic demand and prudent monetary policy have enabled India to weather global headwinds and sustain its growth momentum, positioning it as a fast-growing major economy in a volatile global landscape.
Price Scenario : India's inflation eased in September 2025, with CPI moderating sharply to 1.5%, marking its lowest reading since June 2017. Dun & Bradstreet estimates CPI to ease further to 0.6 % in October 2025, driven by subdued food prices and disinflationary effects of GST rate rationalization. At the same time, WPI inflation is estimated to decline sharply, moving into negative territory (-1%) in October, down from 0.1% in September, reflecting cooling input costs. These trends suggest a benign price environment, which may help boost consumer purchasing power and short-term demand. That said, the combination of post-festive demand normalisation and weak wholesale pricing power could prompt businesses to scale back production and delay restocking. The subdued inflation does provide scope for supportive policy measures to strengthen the performance of manufacturing and export-oriented industries.
Money & Finance: Indian financial markets remain cautiously optimistic, shaped by broadly stable yields and supportive monetary conditions. Dun & Bradstreet estimates the 10-year G-Sec yield to have moderated to 6.5% in October 2025, while the 91-day T-Bill yield is estimated to have remained steady at 5.5%, reflecting investor confidence in short-term instruments amid comfortable liquidity. The RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.5% with a neutral stance in its October policy review, citing subdued inflation and resilient growth. Banking system liquidity conditions fluctuated during the month due to festive and GST outflows, prompting the RBI to conduct multiple variable rate repo and reverse repo auctions. Dun & Bradstreet estimates bank credit growth to ease to 9.8% in October, indicating a measured lending approach amid evolving credit conditions. Meanwhile, the RBI announced a record redemption price of ₹12,704 per unit for Sovereign Gold Bonds issued in 2020, reflecting a sharp rise in value driven by a global gold rally and strong domestic demand. India's gold reserves stood at USD 97.5 billion at end-September, comprising 13.9% of total foreign exchange reserves, the highest share in over two decades, underscoring the RBI's strategic pivot toward safer assets amid global uncertainty.
External Sector: India's external sector showed both resilience and emerging pressures over the review period. The rupee averaged ₹88.6/USD in October, with Dun & Bradstreet projecting a slight appreciation to ₹88.0/USD in November. The RBI's recent amendment to the Foreign Exchange Management Regulations enables rupee-denominated lending to Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, supporting regional financial integration. Moreover, RBI data recorded foreign investment inflows of USD 7.3 billion in Q1 FY26, including USD 2.5 billion in FII and USD 1.6 billion in portfolio investment. This reflects India's growing external strength, marked by currency stability efforts, regulatory reforms for regional financial integration, and deepening trade partnerships. The combination of rising gold reserves and ongoing acceleration of market diversification efforts signals India's strategic positioning as a proactive and increasingly influential player in global trade and finance.
Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet, said, "India's economic trajectory continues to defy global headwinds, anchored by resilient domestic fundamentals and a benign inflation outlook. Industrial output remains robust, though signs of post-festive normalisation and inventory adjustments suggest a near-term moderation. The RBI's neutral stance and stable yields reflect confidence in macroeconomic stability, while strategic trade diversification and rising gold reserves underscore India's proactive positioning as a resilient and forward-looking economy amid global uncertainty. As advanced economies grapple with fiscal fragility, India's calibrated policy mix and expanding external partnerships offer a compelling narrative of resilience and opportunity in a fragmented global landscape."

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